Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.099378 0.113793 0.129463 0.147749 0.168488 0.191267 0.218169
2026-02-01 0.074143 0.092130 0.113222 0.139735 0.172122 0.210351 0.258850
2026-02-08 0.057780 0.077459 0.102212 0.135525 0.179074 0.233946 0.308202
2026-02-15 0.045252 0.065238 0.092114 0.130705 0.184480 0.256509 0.360026
2026-02-22 0.037973 0.058640 0.088239 0.133401 0.200191 0.294867 0.438688
2026-03-01 0.030308 0.050051 0.080111 0.128753 0.204924 0.318910 0.501455
2026-03-08 0.024631 0.043380 0.073647 0.125438 0.211053 0.345875 0.572740
2026-03-15 0.020183 0.037817 0.067928 0.122276 0.216857 0.373153 0.648694
2026-03-22 0.017623 0.034989 0.066235 0.125493 0.233633 0.420426 0.764081
2026-03-29 0.014979 0.031475 0.062707 0.124854 0.243592 0.457626 0.867843
2026-04-05 0.013080 0.029009 0.060661 0.126572 0.258059 0.504733 0.995926
2026-04-12 0.011549 0.026977 0.059085 0.128907 0.274028 0.556768 1.140443
2026-04-19 0.009509 0.023481 0.054033 0.123607 0.274636 0.580864 1.237472
2026-04-26 0.007704 0.020108 0.048600 0.116514 0.270402 0.594906 1.317049
2026-05-03 0.006448 0.017750 0.044965 0.112727 0.272657 0.622664 1.429379
2026-05-10 0.005382 0.015616 0.041428 0.108501 0.273227 0.646978 1.538222
2026-05-17 0.004814 0.014663 0.040581 0.110615 0.288966 0.707123 1.735472
2026-05-24 0.004052 0.012979 0.037533 0.106623 0.289271 0.732181 1.856365
2026-05-31 0.003458 0.011635 0.035106 0.103777 0.291957 0.763257 1.996155
2026-06-07 0.002963 0.010458 0.032894 0.101080 0.294567 0.794541 2.141138
2026-06-14 0.002707 0.009981 0.032594 0.103717 0.311972 0.865404 2.395367
2026-06-21 0.002390 0.009219 0.031282 0.103149 0.320407 0.914407 2.600423
2026-06-28 0.002165 0.008712 0.030658 0.104553 0.334775 0.981285 2.862402